Opinion- Is capitalism really the cause of global inequality?
In 2014, the French economist Thomas Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century became an international sensation, reshaping the inequality debate and launching its author into superstardom....
Harris plays chess while Trump plays checkers
Regardless of who wins November’s US presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump, there is little doubt that the outcome will have a profound impact on the...
Will Trump get his wish for a weaker dollar?
If former US President Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025 – and most betting markets still have the odds at 60 per cent or better – will he achieve the weak dollar that both he and...
Are Americans ready for the US-China trade war?
It is hard to think of an issue that brings together the United States’ deeply divided political class more than the need to contain China’s growing influence, whether through trade restrictions,...
Can Europe's economy exceed expectations in 2024?
After 15 years of economic upheavals, from the European debt crisis to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European economy appears set to underperform in 2024. But are...
Don’t count on a soft landing for the global economy
A month into 2024, the consensus forecast for the global economy remains cautiously optimistic, with most central banks and analysts projecting either a soft landing or potentially no landing at all....
The global economy is not out of the woods
The global economy was full of surprises in 2023. Despite the sharp rise in interest rates, the United States successfully avoided a recession, and major emerging markets did not spiral into a debt...
The stunning resilience of emerging markets
As finance ministers and central bankers convened in Marrakesh for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings on October 9-15, they faced an extraordinary confluence of economic...
The Bank of Japan’s seductive widow-maker trade
Could Japan become the world’s next great growth story? Billionaire and legendary investor Warren Buffett seems to think so. And the International Monetary Fund expects the Japanese economy to grow...
The debt supercycle comes to China
The 2008 financial crisis in the United States kicked off a debt supercycle, which spread to Europe in 2010 and has recently engulfed many of the world’s low-income and lower-middle-income...
Rethinking climate finance for the developing world
Speaking to the Financial Times at the June 22-23 Summit for a New Global Financing Pact in Paris, Kenyan President William Ruto called for the establishment of a “global green bank” that would...
The US debt ceiling debacle is not over
The tentative deal that was just struck to raise the United States’ debt ceiling won’t make the problem go away. Partisan standoffs over the federal debt limit have become a predictable feature of...
Too soon for global optimism...
Many of those who attended this year’s meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the CEOs in attendance. It was hard to reconcile the optimism of these...
The looming financial contagion
The fact that the world did not experience a systemic financial crisis in 2022 is a minor miracle, given the surge in inflation and interest rates, not to mention a massive increase in geopolitical...
Will the dollar’s surge end in whiplash?
The US dollar has been on a tear this summer. The Japanese yen and the euro have fallen to their lowest levels against the greenback in two decades; the euro, long worth more than one dollar, is now...
Fiscal policy should return to fundamentals
Recent large interest-rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank suggest that monetary policymakers are intent on moving forcefully to bring down inflation. But where are the...
The energy price roller coaster
Over the past two and a half years, world oil and gas prices have been subject to demand shocks and supply shocks – and sometimes both simultaneously. The resulting volatility in energy markets is...
Is the peace dividend over?
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should be a wake-up call for Western politicians, corporate leaders, and economists who advocate a green and equitable future but lack any practical or strategic sense...
The Fed’s wary embrace of digital dollars
Many countries’ governments, most notably China’s, are continuing to experiment with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). Money 3.0 is moving full speed ahead, and with its recent white paper,...
Why is the IMF trying to be an aid agency?
Who is going to clean up the inevitable financial mess in emerging markets if persistent inflation forces the US Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates significantly? The International...