Why have inflation forecasts been so wrong?
Ebrahim RahbariThe writer is an independent strategist and economist, is a former chief currency strategist, global head of foreign-exchange analysis, and head of global macroeconomics at...
The ECB should change three bad habits
The European Central Bank too often finds itself “behind the curve” of events, and we believe the blame lies with its decision-making process, rather than its institutional setup or personnel. As...
Is the Fed’s negative capital a problem?
On August 30, 2023, the US Federal Reserve System’s Consolidated Statement of Condition recorded total capital of $42.72 billion. This figure would have been negative but for the appearance of an...
Will Europe’s new TPI be an ATM?
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Central banks are still far behind inflation curve
Major central banks have lost the plot when it comes to fulfilling their price stability mandates. In April, the 12-month US consumer price index (CPI) inflation was at 8.3%, down slightly from 8.5%...
Fiscal capture at the ECB
Since the second quarter of 2021, inflation in the United Kingdom, the United States, and the eurozone has far exceeded their central banks’ 2% target. This surge could well be explained by the...
Pricing existential risk
Since the start of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, much has been written about the increased risk of nuclear annihilation and its impact (or lack thereof) on stock-market valuations. But, leaving aside...
An Argentinian haircut for the IMF
Argentina is about to enter another dysfunctional stand-by agreement with the International Monetary Fund — its 22nd SBA since it joined the IMF in 1956. While the details have not yet been settled,...
Outlaw cryptocurrencies now
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The case against green central banking
One way or another, central banks’ behaviour will have to change with the climate. But it should evolve only because climate change will create new constraints and drive new forms of public and...