America has no alternative to industrial policy
By the end of the 1970s, the US economy appeared to be in serious trouble. Years of inflation had caused deep discontent; measured productivity growth had fallen from its post-World War II pace of 2%...
The threat of Trumpflation and a fed war
Inflation in the United States is lower than it was a year ago, and substantial economic weakness elsewhere is driving other central banks toward interest-rate cuts. With little empirical basis to...
The mystery of US interest rates
In the United States, the long-term real safe interest rate – the inflation-adjusted return on low-risk investments such as Treasuries is, in addition to “financial conditions,” the key...
The Fed’s remarkable feat
Monetary policy watchers are currently divided into two groups. But perhaps both sides should pause and reflect on where we were 18 months ago and where we are now.On one side of the divide are those...
The great labour market shakeup
Approximately 13% of low-wage jobs in Germany would not be viable if workers understood just how good their outside options truly are. That is the conclusion of a recent paper by Benjamin Schoefer, my...
Why all the inflation worries?
In the past three years, technological advances have provided about one percentage point of warranted US real wage growth each year – admittedly, only half the rate of earlier times, but still...