The ever-evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East has been significantly reshaped by the ongoing turmoil in Syria. Syria has just delivered an event that could have a profound impact on its neighbours but also on Europe as well.
The question is: how are Europeans confronting the challenge of adapting to this rapidly evolving and multi-faceted new situation in the Middle East? The initial European response can be described as one of hesitation, a sense of being 'stuck'.
Even the UK, which exited the EU in search of a more agile role on the world stage, is approaching the situation with caution. The consequences of Syria's crisis resonate deeply across Europe, second only to the broader repercussions felt across the Middle East. Europe stands at a crossroads and its next steps will define its role on the global stage in the years to come.
As early as the mid-November, it had become evident that Bashar al Assad’s government was becoming increasingly vulnerable to a rebel offensive. With the US stepping back, a vacuum emerged, quickly filled by fighters aiming to shift the battlefield dynamics. Alongside this, Russia’s strategic interests in Syria required a firmer foothold.
Adding a new layer to the dynamic, the return of Jonathan Powell as the national security adviser to Prime Minister Keir Starmer signals a shift in Britain’s approach to the Middle East. Powell, who made headlines a decade ago, will now oversee the UK’s response to the shifting power balance in Syria, particularly concerning Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS).
The terms of Britain’s engagement, under Powell’s guidance, will be closely examined by allies and adversaries alike. Downing Street, mindful of the stakes, have conducted intensive role-play exercises, shaping a strategy that they are confident has been thoroughly stress-tested. Initial contacts with HTS are already underway, but significant caution prevails in Whitehall regarding the UK’s ability to carve out a meaningful role in the region’s evolving crisis.
Meanwhile, across the English Channel, EU foreign affairs ministers gathered in Brussels for critical talks on setting guidelines for European policy towards Damascus. These discussions, marked by technical intricacies, are infused with a sense of cautious optimism as European leaders consider their next steps. Among their key priorities is the appointment of a new EU special envoy, who will be tasked with managing the sensitive and evolving diplomatic situation in Syria.
For a region shaped by the lasting repercussions of government collapse, the calm deliberations in European capitals seem detached from the chaos unfolding in Syria. European leaders, in their meetings, remain focused on processes, goals and an overarching aim of normalisation.
However, underlying these discussions is the looming specter of instability in Iran. Here too, the prevailing sentiment is a reluctance to abandon the long-held “E3 approach” — led by France, Germany and the UK — that remains tethered to the controversial Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Iran nuclear deal. Despite the changing geopolitical dynamics, Europeans cling to a strategy defined by an outdated legacy, unaware of how swiftly the regional winds are shifting. The storm in Syria may soon reach their doorstep.
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) belongs to the Obama/Kerry era, a momentous agreement struck in 2015, before the Trump administration withdrew the US three years later.
Since then, China and Russia have distanced themselves from the broader coalition that supported the deal and its accompanying UN Security Council Resolution 2231. Now, it is only the E3 — France, Germany, and the UK — that remains engaged, united in their diplomatic efforts concerning Iran. This trio continues to uphold a principled belief that the framework prevents a nuclear-armed Iran, but their adherence to this stance leaves them ill-prepared for what lies ahead.
As the rapidly evolving crisis in Syria demonstrates and with the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to office, the landscape is shifting drastically. While engagement with key actors in this new era is essential, it is not enough to retain influence as the changes triggered by the downfall of Assad’s regime take hold. The E3’s narrow focus on their legacy strategy is increasingly out of step with the emerging realities of the region.
Dr IMRAN KHALID
The writer is a freelance columnist on international affairs.
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