Our world is at a critical juncture. The devastating effects of global warming are increasingly evident, and the crisis is deepening. To mitigate it, we must urgently reduce global greenhouse-gas emissions. Failing to act now will only increase the human and economic toll.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, presents a unique opportunity for effective collective action. Amid heightened geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty, COP29 will serve as a test of the multilateral system on which humanity’s ability to respond to this existential threat depends.
The groundwork for coordinated action was laid in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 with the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which established the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) to promote consensus-based solutions. The philosophy was simple: given that climate change is a global issue, addressing it requires a collaborative approach.
The UNFCCC fosters cooperation between smaller countries and superpowers, enables civil-society organisations to engage directly with governments, and facilitates cross-border technology transfers. Perhaps most importantly, it provides a framework for collective action in which each country’s efforts encourage others to step up their own.
While the 1997 Kyoto Protocol set binding emission-reduction targets for developed economies, it quickly became clear that more was needed. In response, developed countries pledged in 2009 to mobilise $100 billion annually by 2020 to support developing countries’ climate policies.
The 2015 Paris climate agreement marked a turning point, setting the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and ensuring that the increase stays well below 2°C. To monitor progress, the agreement established a system of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) through which each country outlines its emission-reduction plans. Periodic global audits assess whether countries are on track to fulfil their climate commitments.
Regrettably, the first global audit, released ahead of last year’s COP28 in Dubai, showed that we are far from meeting these climate targets. It also offered a comprehensive road map, calling on all countries to commit to NDCs aligned with the 1.5°C goal and establishing clear steps and timelines – including transitioning away from fossil fuels – that could bring the Paris agreement’s objectives within reach.
COP29 represents the next step for the multilateral approach, with leaders expected to agree on a significant boost to the $100 billion climate finance target – the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG). Moreover, each country must submit its updated NDCs by February 2025.
Transparency is essential to this process. If the Paris agreement’s targets are the destination, and the NDCs are the road map, the NCQG provides the fuel needed to get there. Building trust in countries’ commitment to bold climate action and willingness to provide the necessary financing is key.
As COP29 President, Azerbaijan is urging all countries to submit NDCs aligned with the 1.5°C target as soon as possible. We are also doing everything we can to secure a fair and ambitious new climate-finance goal that addresses developing countries’ needs and matches the scale and urgency of the crisis.
Falling short would force us to confront tough questions: Are we willing to accept the failure of the Paris agreement? And what are the alternatives? One thing is clear: without a viable backup plan, we must do all we can to meet the 1.5°C goal. Sleepwalking into climate catastrophe is not an option.
To be sure, the multilateral system has its flaws. But it remains the best framework to tackle this daunting challenge. Over three decades, it has fostered lasting international cooperation, a shared understanding of the science, and a strong consensus concerning global climate goals.
The alternative to multilateralism is a fragmented response, with governments pursuing their own agendas without coordination or cooperation. This approach would mean slower progress, higher costs, and less equitable outcomes. Without a unifying goal, any sense of shared purpose would all but vanish.
Consider, for example, COP29’s objective of finalising negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris agreement, which aims to standardise carbon markets. By channelling resources toward the most effective mitigation projects, this framework could save $250 billion annually by 2030 – a substantial boost in an era of limited resources.
Given the alternatives, we have no choice but to make the current system work. The COP29 Presidency will leave no stone unturned to achieve an international consensus. With an agenda focused on advancing transformative climate action, Azerbaijan could help bridge geopolitical divisions. But our success hinges on countries’ willingness to engage constructively and commit to the multilateral process.
The science is clear, the frameworks for coordinated action are in place, and the plan has been laid out. Now, we must find the political will to put these tools to use. COP29 is our chance to prove that multilateralism can work. @Project Syndicate, 2024
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