WASHINGTON: Control of the US Congress is at stake in elections that could flip both the House of Representatives and the Senate, while still leaving Capitol Hill divided between Donald Trump's Republicans and Kamala Harris' Democrats. The outcome will play an important role in determining how easily the winner of the US presidential election will govern until the next congressional elections in 2026.
Non-partisan analysts say Republicans stand a good chance of taking back the Senate, where Democrats hold a 51-49 majority. But Republicans could also lose their grip on the House, where Democrats only need to pick up four seats to take back control of the 435-seat chamber. As in the presidential election, the outcome will likely be determined by a small slice of voters. The battle for the Senate hinges on seven contests, while fewer than 40 House races are seen as truly competitive.
"It's incredibly close," said Erin Covey, who analyses House races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report. Voters do not seem to be indicating a clear preference for either party. An October Reuters/Ipsos poll found 43 per cent of registered voters would back the Republican candidate in their district, while 43 per cent would back the Democratic candidate.
Democrats are playing defence as they try to retain their hold on the Senate, whose members serve six-year terms. Republicans only need to gain two seats to win control of the chamber, and they are expected to easily pick up one of those seats with a victory in West Virginia, where Joe Manchin, a Democrat-turned-independent, is retiring. The state's popular governor, Jim Justice, is forecast to easily capture Manchin's seat.
Republicans could secure their majority with a victory in Montana, where Democrat Jon Tester faces a difficult reelection battle, or Ohio, where Democrat Sherrod Brown likewise is locked in a close race. Republicans stand a chance to widen their Senate majority further if they win races in several competitive Midwestern states. That would allow them to block many of Harris' initiatives and personnel appointments if she were to win the White House, or help Trump deliver on his promised tax cuts if he wins. But they are unlikely to end up with the 60-vote majority needed to advance most legislation in the chamber.
In Nebraska, Republican Senator Deb Fischer faces a surprisingly strong challenge from an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, who has not said whether he would line up with Democrats in the Senate if he were to win. Republicans were also playing defence in Texas, where Senator Ted Cruz faced a challenge from Democratic Representative Colin Allred, for a seat Republicans have held for three decades.
The picture is less clear in the House, where Republicans hold a narrow 220-212 majority. Analysts say Democrats could easily pick up enough seats to win control of the chamber, though there are no signs of a "wave" election, akin to 2018 or 2010, that would result in a decisive shift in power. — Reuters
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