The complex game of geopolitics

IN a sense, life can be seen as a game. Each game has an origin, a continuation, and an eventual end. Some people find joy in playing, while others might not. Regardless of the game's outcome, understanding the rules and appreciating the process is crucial. By doing so, we can find satisfaction in playing, even when we lose.

In our highly competitive world, this mindset is essential. After all, there is no rule that demands victory each time. Reflecting on our experiences in the game — whether it’s life or a geopolitical situation — becomes a valuable learning mechanism.

However, one area where the rules remain elusive to many is geopolitics. This field is often characterised by confusion and strategic puzzles. To better understand the ‘game’ of geopolitics, it’s useful to focus on two prominent developments currently shaping public discourse: the Gaza crisis and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Both events illustrate the complexity of international relations and the intricacies involved in resolving such conflicts.

Despite efforts by many to bring peace, the crises in these regions seem far from resolution. The mechanisms of global diplomacy often move sluggishly, even in the face of rising casualties — many of whom are innocent children, women, and the elderly. It is perplexing to see that, despite genuine attempts to de-escalate tensions, the situation continues to worsen. Geopolitics is riddled with challenges, including conflicting interests, power struggles, and hidden anomalies that complicate the pursuit of peace.

Unlike economic markets, where supply and demand forces typically find equilibrium, the geopolitical ‘market’ lacks a built-in mechanism for achieving quick peace. This is partly because geopolitical decisions are influenced by a blend of ego, power, hatred, revenge, and other motivations, along with values like honesty, responsibility, and empathy. Unlike the straightforward exchanges of goods in a market, the forces driving geopolitical actions are intangible yet potent enough to shape the course of events.

In this game of geopolitics, friendships can shift to enmities and vice versa. So, how can one truly understand it? Given the volatile and unpredictable nature of global politics, finding enjoyment in following the events can feel like chasing a mirage.

Consider the number of diplomatic trips and high-level meetings involving the US President, the Secretary of State, the National Security Advisor, and their counterparts in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, or the efforts made by the Prime Minister of India, the External Affairs Minister, and Russian leaders in addressing the Ukraine crisis. These meetings often take place within established comfort zones, with countries that share cultural, political, or ideological interests.

Leaders from global trading and political blocs, as well as institutions like the United Nations, continuously work towards establishing peace. For example, the recent UN General Assembly session under the theme ‘Leaving no one behind: acting together for the advancement of peace, sustainable development, and human dignity for present and future generations’ highlighted the urgency of peace efforts. Yet, violence and conflict persist.

Despite numerous diplomatic visits and discussions being an integral part of international policy, they do not seem to significantly reduce violence. How, then, does such severe violence originate and endure? Could there be an equally strong or even stronger force opposing these efforts to maintain peace? What is that force?

While achieving peace remains an uphill battle, it is essential to attempt to understand what is truly happening. This involves examining every move made by international leaders and diplomats, understanding the underlying implications, and identifying the key obstacles to peace. There are ongoing allegations of funding wars, supplying arms, and profiting from conflict, which continue to spark intense debates. Delving into these issues may help shed light on the reality of geopolitics, at least from an academic perspective.

Understanding these dynamics can offer us insights into the strategic moves, motivations, and decisions of global leaders. While geopolitics remains a complex and often opaque field, engaging with its intricacies and looking beyond the surface can provide a clearer picture of the forces at play.