Federal Reserve officials have been watching the job market closely, wary that it might be cracking under the pressure of high interest rates. The September employment report does a lot to alleviate those concerns.
Companies hired at a rapid clip, the unemployment rate dipped and wage growth came in strong last month — a sign that the economy is holding up in the face of high borrowing costs.
The report reversed recent signs of a labor market slowdown. In doing so, it probably took away the argument for a big rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting, in early November.
Fed policymakers lowered interest rates by half a point in September, an unusually large rate cut and their first in more than four years. Officials were reacting to slowing inflation and a recent cooling in the labor market.
But Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been clear that future rate cuts are likely to be more measured if the economy performs as expected. The Fed’s economic projections in September showed that officials expect to lower borrowing costs by another half a point before the end of the year, implying that they would make a quarter-point cut at each of their remaining two meetings.
Officials had forecast that the job market would continue to slow slightly — with unemployment ticking up to 4.4% — before leveling off.
Friday’s jobs data suggested that instead of gradually slowing, the job market may in fact be stabilizing already. Unemployment ticked down to 4.1% last month, and wage growth picked up to 4%, faster than the 3.8% economists had expected.
While Fed officials will receive one more jobs report before their meeting Nov. 6-7, that report will come just days before the gathering, during the quiet period that Fed officials observe before their policy decisions. That means that the September employment report is the final one that central bankers will be able to assess and widely talk about before their decision.
Some economists, including Joe LaVorgna at SMBC Nikko Securities, suggested after the report that the Fed should contemplate skipping a rate cut at their upcoming meeting in light of the labor market’s strength. But most said the improved job market picture meant policymakers could take their time lowering interest rates — not that they needed to stay high.
“The September report generally reversed many of the cooling trends that had been apparent in various measures of labor market activity,” Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan, wrote after the release, explaining that it would take a “large” surprise to shake the central bank from its path of gradually normalizing interest rates.
“After today’s report, the soft landing looks back on track,” Feroli wrote.
Investors widely expected a quarter-point rate cut in November in the wake of the release, where they had previously been split between expecting a half or a quarter-point reduction.
Policymakers will also be watching other incoming data, including inflation numbers set for release next week, weekly jobless claims and anecdotal information about how the economy is holding up.
The Fed is trying to strike a delicate balance. High interest rates slow the economy by making it more expensive to buy a house or expand a business on borrowed money. But while Fed officials wanted to cool conditions enough to wrestle rapid inflation under control, they do not want to cool them so much that they cause a painful economic crash.
That is why policymakers are now lowering rates — but proceeding carefully. They are trying to set the economy down gently, but they do not want to reheat the economy and reignite rapid inflation in the process.
“Our design overall is to achieve disinflation down to 2% without the kind of painful increase in unemployment that has often come with disinflation processes,” Powell said this week. “We haven’t completed that task.”
Friday’s report was at least one data point suggesting that the soft landing is on track, given how robust the job market remains. — The New York Times
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