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EDITOR IN CHIEF- ABDULLAH BIN SALIM AL SHUEILI

AI's potential to transform and disrupt — or damage — the economy

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It's been a whirlwind 660 days since ChatGPT was first unveiled to the public. The initial release captivated the world with its ability to generate human-like text, but that was just the beginning. Subsequent releases have introduced groundbreaking features such as code interpretation and execution, plugin support, and a vastly expanded context window allowing for deeper, more nuanced interactions.


The initial release, GPT-3.5, on November 30, 2022, showcased its impressive text generation capabilities, laying the foundation for subsequent advancements. On March 14, 2023, GPT-4 was introduced, representing a substantial leap forward in terms of enhanced reasoning, improved accuracy, and the capacity to handle more complex prompts.


Just a few weeks later, in March 2023, two major developments expanded ChatGPT's functionality: the introduction of plugins, enabling interaction with external tools and services, and the release of GPT-4 with a 32k context window, vastly increasing its memory and contextual understanding. April 2023 saw the debut of the Code Interpreter, empowering ChatGPT to interpret and execute code snippets, further broadening its range of applications.


OpenAI's latest flagship model, GPT-4o, arrived on May 13, 2024, ushering in a new era of AI interaction with its multimodal capabilities, allowing it to process and respond to not only text but also images, with future support for audio and video planned. Finally, on July 18, 2024, GPT-4o Mini was released, providing a more accessible and cost-effective version of GPT-4o while maintaining impressive performance across various tasks.


The competition in the generative AI space has been heating up, with Google's Gemini looming large on the horizon. Gemini could push the boundaries even further with its rumored multimodal capabilities, potentially surpassing ChatGPT in terms of sheer power and flexibility. Other notable contenders include Anthropic's Claude and Cohere, each fighting for a slice of the extremely competitive AI market.


The astonishing rise of AI has prompted reflection on past predictions. In 2022, prominent figures like Elon Musk and Bill Gates offered contrasting views on AI's trajectory, with Musk emphasizing its potential dangers and Gates highlighting its potential to revolutionize various industries.


Former Google CEO Eric Schmidt's definition of AI as something that "learns" highlights a crucial distinction. In the early days of ChatGPT's popularity, there was a tendency to conflate AI with any form of automation, contributing to a misunderstanding of its true capabilities. This misrepresentation skewed perceptions of AI's potential, leading to both inflated expectations and unwarranted fears.


The hype surrounding AI has translated into substantial investment. Global AI funding is projected to reach staggering heights, with venture capitalists, tech giants, and governments pouring billions into the sector. The United States and China lead the charge, while companies like OpenAI, DeepMind, and Anthropic have emerged as major recipients of this funding wave.


As AI continues its relentless advance, concerns persist about its impact on the job market. While AI has the potential to automate many tasks, it's important to remember that it also creates new opportunities. Jobs requiring creativity, critical thinking, and emotional intelligence are likely to remain in high demand, while those involving repetitive, predictable tasks may be most susceptible to automation.


Tiff Macklem, the head of the Bank of Canada, recently expressed his concerns about the potential impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on Canada's economy. While acknowledging AI's potential to transform industries and boost productivity, Macklem cautioned that the technology could also lead to significant job losses and economic disruption. He emphasized the need for a proactive approach to address the challenges associated with AI's rapid advancement and he noted that these benefits might take time to materialize. Macklem expressed concerns about the potential inflationary impact of AI-related investments. He suggested that the surge in AI stocks could lead to increased spending and contribute to inflation: "Investment in AI could fuel inflation as investors profit from a surge in AI stocks and spend that money on other stuff."


Elon Musk, a vocal advocate for responsible AI development, has warned of the potential dangers of unchecked AI progress, stating, "AI is far more dangerous than nukes." His words serve as a reminder that as we embrace AI's transformative power, we must also prioritize safety and ethical considerations to ensure a future that benefits all of humanity.


Stefano Virgilli


The author is a member of the International Press Association


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