Six months ago, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s grip on power in Bangladesh appeared unbreakable. The ruling Awami League had just won a fourth successive term in an uncontested election, allowing it to remain in full control of the country’s institutions. With journalists, human-rights defenders, opposition members, and other critics facing politically motivated prosecution, prison, exile, and forced disappearance, the country’s continued descent into authoritarianism seemed certain.
But suddenly, last month, student-led protests erupted across the country, fueled by outrage over a quota system that allocates government jobs to the ruling party’s allies.
The state’s response – a violent crackdown that claimed more than 400 lives – revealed the brittleness of Hasina’s 15-year rule. In scenes reminiscent of the Sri Lankan 'Aragalaya' mass protests that ended the rule of the Rajapaksa family in 2022, young Bangladeshis forced Hasina to resign and flee into exile.
Bangladesh is the latest in a series of youth-driven uprisings that have shaken countries in Asia and Africa this year. In February, young Pakistanis delivered a shock result when, defying the military, they voted en masse for the imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan, giving his allies the highest number of votes and seats in parliament.
The following month, young Senegalese voters reclaimed their democracy in an election that was nearly stolen from them. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a little-known tax inspector, was catapulted from prison to the presidency in the space of just a few weeks.
Then, in June, the tremors reached Kenya, where protesters, proudly identifying themselves as 'Gen Z,' took to the streets to express their outrage against President William Ruto’s plan to introduce new taxes on essential items. As in Bangladesh, the authorities responded with lethal violence, killing dozens and injuring hundreds. Ultimately, though, Ruto was forced to withdraw the bill. Now attention has turned to Nigeria, which has been jolted by protests over the rising cost of living.
A new generation is asserting itself in parts of Asia and Africa. Young people are spontaneously forming protest movements and forging rare coalitions. This is the first generation that has not known life before the internet, and they are using social media not just to announce and live-stream street protests, but also to organize and debate. In the process, they are devising innovative tactics, including the use of artificial intelligence, and creating new spaces by holding digital demonstrations when the streets are closed off to them. In response, governments have unleashed their own techno-repression, from throttling the internet to shutting it down altogether.
These movements also are unsettling conventional views of politics, transcending traditional ethnic and political divides, and often shunning traditional political parties and civil-society organisations. It is typically assumed that populism and authoritarianism are complementary forces, yet here we see expressions of populism challenging authoritarianism – and by a generation that is proving to be both fearless and uncompromising. Far from deterring them, state violence has often hardened their resolve.
Of course, it would be a mistake to overstate this 'youthquake' or to generalise across two vast continents. Gen-Z protesters are not monolithic, nor are they all idealistic in their ambitions. Like any other age cohort, the young are politically divided. In Bangladesh, for example, the ruling party’s thuggish youth wing, the Chhatra League, was partly responsible for the violence.
While Senegal had a relatively smooth transition, owing to the resilience of its institutions, Bangladesh is on a more uncertain path, with the threat of violence and civil disorder still hanging over the country. Recent reprisals against members of the Awami League and attacks on the Hindu minority show how the taste of victory can lead some to temptations of vengeance.
Nonetheless, there are striking similarities. In each case mentioned above, people between the ages of 15 and 34 constitute at least one-third of the total population. Despite strong economic growth of around 6 per cent per year, Bangladesh struggles with 15 per cent youth unemployment. And many of these countries are weighed down by heavy debt burdens, using between 20 per cent and 60 per cent of government expenditures to keep their creditors at bay – a sum that dwarfs public spending on education, health, and urgently needed climate action. It’s no coincidence that these protests are taking place in some of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world.
The protests were sparked in many cases by the announcement of new measures that would have inflicted more economic pain on young people – whether it was regressive taxes in Kenya, the unfair allocation of jobs in Bangladesh, or the rising cost of living in Nigeria. But these moves merely set aflame a tinderbox of grievances that had accumulated over decades.
Young people are despairing not just the lack of economic prospects, but also their rulers’ greed, the state’s brutality, and a general unresponsiveness to their needs. There is an impatience with the status quo. They want to sweep away old, outdated orders and reimagine their political systems.
But this change will not come easily, nor is it guaranteed. A decade ago, youthful revolts also broke out across the Arab world, toppling dictatorships and rousing hopes for a more just and equitable order. To avoid those failures, the openings this moment has created will have to quickly be seized and built upon – and the dangers will have to be carefully navigated.
@Project Syndicate 2024
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