The Middle East is in turmoil, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the center of escalating tensions. Netanyahu's aggressive stance against the Lebanese resistance and Iran is seen as a move to solidify his position amid internal protests and his failure to rescue kidnapped Israelis.
Disputes between Netanyahu and Israeli military and security leaders over a prisoner exchange deal and a Gaza ceasefire add to the turmoil. The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political bureau, in Tehran was a bold and risky move by Netanyahu. This act not only violated Iranian sovereignty but also seemed aimed at provoking the United States into a direct military confrontation with Iran. Netanyahu's actions have put his political future at stake.
Netanyahu's strategy in Gaza has backfired, leading to a significant defeat against the Palestinian resistance. Now, the region teeters on the brink of a broader conflict, with Hezbollah and Iran preparing for potential military action against Israel. Diplomatic efforts are underway, but the assassination has made it difficult for Iran to back down without losing face.
Netanyahu has become a liability for both the West and the United States, as well as within Israel. The October 7, 2023, incident, where Israeli forces failed to recover kidnapped Israelis despite significant military and American support, marked a major setback. This failure has led to calls for Netanyahu's resignation.
Netanyahu’s attempts to stir up chaos, reminiscent of the "creative chaos" strategy promoted by former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, involve risky attacks in Beirut and Tehran. These actions aim to draw the US into a regional war against Iran and the resistance forces, complicating the situation further. Netanyahu’s maneuvers disrupted a planned prisoner exchange deal and a ceasefire, a plan backed by the US and reluctantly accepted by Hamas. This deal was aimed at stopping the daily violence against civilians in Gaza and was seen as crucial by the Palestinian resistance. Accepting the American deal would also involve political and security investigations against Netanyahu, posing a severe threat to his government. The current American administration, nearing the end of its term, is in a weak position. As the US approaches elections, the political focus shifts, making the administration less active in international affairs. This context may affect American support for Netanyahu's actions. Global markets experienced a severe shock recently, a sign of the instability caused by the escalating conflict. Investors are wary, and the economic repercussions could be significant.
The question remains whether a comprehensive regional war will occur. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has called for de-escalation, highlighting the risks to American military bases and interests in the region. Recent missile attacks by Iraqi groups on the Ain al-Asad base, injuring American soldiers, underscore these risks. Iran is likely to respond militarily, though the scale and targets of such an attack remain uncertain. Diplomatic efforts might still prevent a broader conflict, with potential mediation by countries like Egypt, Qatar, and the US. If a deal is reached and American pressure on Netanyahu succeeds, his downfall could be imminent. The internal Israeli political scene is also volatile, with military leaders pushing for an end to the war. Netanyahu’s ability to manage multiple fronts is under severe strain, marking a historic moment in the Arab-Israeli conflict. The outcome hinges on whether the US can navigate its internal political landscape and avoid being drawn into a regional war. The economic implications of such a conflict are dire, with global markets already showing signs of distress. The critical question is whether Iran’s expected military response can be contained and whether a US-brokered deal can bring stability to Gaza and the wider region. Netanyahu's political future hangs in the balance, as his strategy risks dragging the region into a catastrophic conflict.
The original version of this article was published in Arabic in the print edition of Oman newspaper on 7 August 2024.
Awad bin Saeed Baqwir
The author is a journalist, political writer and member of the State Council
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