UK to be concerned about workers who emigrate

With the ensuing general election in the UK, recent migration statistics reaffirmed the issue’s place on the political agenda. As a result of a post-Brexit surge in non-EU immigration, as well as the arrangements for Ukrainians and Hong Kong nationals arriving in the UK, net migration reached a record high of over 600,000.

As numbers continue to rise, the government pledge to reduce net migration to tens of thousands looks just symbolic. While the focus has been primarily on inflows, the UK would do well to show more concern about outflows.

With wages in Britain stagnating and prices increasing, leaving the country is appealing to an increasing number of workers, particularly the highly skilled and most productive. Research from last year suggested that 3.4m UK citizens were planning to move abroad, with around 400,000 workers planning to do so in the next two years.

A decade of stagnating wages has made Britain less attractive for the most productive. A junior professional could earn double in New York compared to London, with the cost of living only about one third higher. Places such as Australia offer higher wages for a range of careers, including trades and medical care, over and above the wonderful weather that would appeal to younger workers.

Many of these countries are keen to tap into British talent. New Zealand has announced a new visa programme offering all under the age of 35 in the UK a chance to relocate for three years. When tech firms began lay-offs last year, posters began appearing around London tempting the newly redundant workers to move to Lithuania. Social media is replete with ad campaigns trying to lure high-value employees abroad.

One can’t tell yet how much effect this will have. Emigration from the UK rose from about 2008, and now sits firmly at around 600,000, about half of the number of people moving into Britain. This figure also includes, however, migrants returning home after shortish stays. The figure for UK natives moving away is around a fifth of that number which has held steady for sometime.

But there is no guarantee it will stay that way. There has probably not been a better time to move abroad. Advances in technology have made the process far easier, with complications such as banking readily solved with financial apps. Equally, the growth of Zoom has made staying in touch with relations far easier than before.

The possibility of remote work has also increased the lure of new shores. For many it’s now possible to relocate without even changing job, taking some of the uncertainty out of emigrating and allowing to exploit differences in the cost of living. Those who can consult or freelance may be particularly footloose and able to swap the struggles of the UK housing market for a higher standard of living in Southern or Eastern Europe.

These outflows should be a concern. Those who leave tend to be ambitious and productive, workers in their prime years who pay taxes, spend money and don’t need much in return from the state. They are significant net contributors to the economy and essential to the running of businesses and public services. A brain drain is rarely good for a country.

It’s been a while since Britain was a major source of emigres. Outflows peaked in the 60s, as people were tempted by generous packages to move to newly industrialising commonwealth nations. Later the oil-rich Gulf states attracted many as they developed into oil-rich powers.

While some tradesmen from deindustrialised areas ply their trade in Europe, Britain largely remained an importer of labour. Whether it is the big dollars lure of the US or the sunshine of the antipodes, emigration is back on the agenda. The government should be concerned about this as much as it is about immigration.