The Israeli leadership underestimated the resistance it would face from Gaza, mistakenly believing it would be a quick military action like past conflicts.
However, the war has now stretched into its eighth month, and there are no signs it will end soon. Israel finds itself more exhausted, dealing with a multitude of internal and external challenges.
As the war drags on, there have been increasing calls within Israel for a prisoner release deal. Many are warning the Israeli leadership that it is on the brink of a strategic defeat. This sentiment was echoed by former Justice Minister Haim Ramon in the Israeli newspaper Maariv. Despite Israel’s initial aim to weaken Hamas, the resistance remains strong and has inflicted significant losses on Israeli forces.
Recently, over 15 Israeli soldiers were killed or wounded east of Rafah, and a new Israeli soldier was captured in a complex operation in the Jabalia camp.
Israeli intelligence, which has historically relied on its network of spies, has been unable to locate Hamas leaders. These leaders continue to direct the war from unknown locations, much to the frustration of Netanyahu and his war council, who are eager to capture or kill figures like Yahya Al Sinwar, Muhammad Al Deif, and Abu Ubaida to claim victory.
The internal pressure on the Israeli government to release prisoners held by the resistance is intense. At the same time, Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Galant face mounting criticism for failing to achieve their declared war objectives, particularly the dismantling of Hamas and the release of detainees in Gaza.
Even now, eight months into the conflict, some Israelis are still discussing the intelligence failure to anticipate and prepare for the October 7 attack.
Haaretz concluded that Israel’s dismissal and cessation of intelligence gathering on Hamas for over two years led to the Al Aqsa flood and that this intelligence failure continued even after the war began.
Israel has not achieved its goals of eliminating the resistance, its leaders, or liberating its prisoners. The war has also resulted in significant economic losses. Bloomberg has warned of the severe economic consequences of the 'Al Aqsa Flood' battle on the Israeli economy, suggesting it could lead to another lost decade similar to the one after the 1973 war. The Central Bank of Israel has estimated the total cost of the war could reach 250 billion shekels ($67.4 billion) by 2025.
US President Joe Biden described the Al Aqsa flood as an event that would change the world and reverberate throughout the 21st century. His comment, made while the flood was still fresh, has proven accurate.
The world has indeed changed, with the Palestinian issue gaining unprecedented international attention. Many countries are now racing to recognise the Palestinian state, and students from international universities, as well as protesters in various global capitals, are standing in solidarity with the Palestinians.
This global movement sends a clear message that the Palestinian cause cannot be buried, and resistance remains strong as long as there is a single Palestinian alive.
This international support indicates that Israel’s existence is increasingly precarious, no matter how many weapons it has or how many Arab regimes support it. These regimes may disappear before Israel does, as predicted by the Islamic scholar Sheikh Muhammad al Ghazali.
The Al Aqsa flood, now in its eighth month, has achieved militarily and medially what Arab armies and information ministries have failed to achieve for over seventy years. If some believe otherwise, that is their problem.
The proposal by former Israeli Justice Minister Haim Ramon for Israel to declare an end to the war, contingent on the return of all prisoners, highlights the suffering within Israel. Internal disputes among war council members have surfaced, with public accusations of strategic failure.
Tzachi Hanegbi, head of the Israeli National Security Council, admitted on Israeli Channel 13 that Israel did not achieve its war goals: eliminating Hamas, securing the return of prisoners, and ensuring the safe return of residents to the Gaza envelope. He even noted that achieving these goals would take years, not just one year. If eight months have caused so much harm to Israel, it raises the question of whether it can continue the war despite the ongoing losses.
The Palestinian resistance has succeeded in causing significant pain to Israel over the past months, shattering the myth of Israel’s 'invincible' army and exposing the unpreparedness for the October 7 attack.
Hamas has brought the Palestinian issue back to the forefront, making it a top priority worldwide again. This has embarrassed the normalising countries and the Palestinian Authority, halting the normalisation process for other countries, at least temporarily. Many more positives are likely to emerge over time as the situation develops.
Translated by Badr al Dhafari
(The original version of the article was published Oman Arabic newspaper on June 10)
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