India's rise as a global superpower

As a policy analyst, and a former secretary and academic officer of the Historical Association of Oman, I have noticed the remarkable strength and endurance of the relationship between Oman and India. The exchange of goods, people, colours, ways of living, and beliefs has been shaped by various factors such as geopolitical realities and commercial interests, and has persisted for thousands of years despite changes in technology, and culture.

However, given the constantly developing landscape of global affairs characterised by uncertainty, India's trajectory as a burgeoning superpower beckons a nuanced examination to navigate the future of the Oman-India relationship and partnership. Geopolitical uncertainties and shifting alliances further compound the situation, highlighting the need to continuously re-evaluate strategic partnerships and power dynamics for India and its partners.

India is a key player in the global geopolitical landscape, boasting the world's fifth-largest economy by GDP, according to the IMF ranking in February 2024, and the third-largest by purchasing power parity. It is also recognised as one of the fastest-growing major economies, with an annual growth rate of 6.3 per cent of its real GDP, which is projected by the IMF to reach 6.5 per cent in 2024.

India's economic trajectory towards superpower status is evident through its growing influence in international trade and investment. The country's economic reforms, liberalisation policies, and investments in infrastructure have positioned it as a crucial player in global supply chains. India's large consumer market, skilled workforce, and burgeoning technology sector have attracted significant foreign investment, particularly in sectors like IT, pharmaceuticals, and renewable energy.

As India continues its economic ascent, it is expected to further solidify its position as a major economic powerhouse, potentially overtaking the likes of the United States and China in GDP rankings in the coming decades. However, challenges such as income inequality, bureaucratic red tape, and infrastructure bottlenecks remain hurdles that need to be addressed to sustain long-term growth.

In terms of military capabilities, India possesses one of the largest standing armed forces in the world. The country has invested heavily in modernising its military equipment and has been focusing on enhancing its defence capabilities, particularly in the domains of air and naval power. India's military doctrine has evolved to include a mix of conventional and nuclear capabilities, aimed at deterring regional threats and safeguarding its national interests. A case in point is last week’s rescue of 17 crew members during an anti-piracy operation by the Indian Navy, with no casualties reported. The captured Somali pirates were taken to be prosecuted in Mumbai, aboard the warship INS Kolkata, just days after they were captured by Indian forces.

Looking ahead, India's military expansion is likely to continue, with an emphasis on developing indigenous defence technologies, expanding its naval presence in the Indian Ocean region, and enhancing its strategic partnerships with key countries such as the United States, Japan, and Australia through initiatives like the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue).

Considering India's rise on the global stage, and its stable relationship with Oman at multiple levels, Oman can benefit from forging closer ties with India to tap into its economic prowess and strategic influence. Equally, Oman being a key player in the Gulf region, both countries stand to gain from collaborating on various fronts, including trade, energy cooperation, counter-terrorism efforts, and maritime security, serving their joint mid- to long-term strategic and national interests.

Oman should look to leverage its strategic location as a gateway between the Middle East, Africa, and Asia to enhance economic partnerships with India. This can involve joint infrastructure projects, such as the development of ports, logistics hubs, and industrial zones that facilitate trade between the two countries and beyond. In addition, Oman can help bridge the growing gap between India and Muslim communities around the globe, extending its credibility to India.

Moreover, Oman is well poised in formulating and catalysing a Trilateral Strategic Alliance involving Oman, India, and Iran. The potential for cooperation between India and Iran presents a unique opportunity for Oman to play a facilitating role in enhancing regional connectivity and stability. India has historical ties with both Iran and Oman and has been actively involved in projects like the Chabahar port development in Iran, aimed at improving trade links with Central Asia and Afghanistan.

Oman can leverage its diplomatic relations with India and Iran to facilitate dialogue and cooperation on a range of issues, including energy security, maritime trade, and regional stability. By acting as a bridge between India and Iran, Oman can help unlock synergies that benefit all three countries, fostering a conducive environment for economic growth and strategic collaboration in the region. In addition, both Oman and India, endowed with a common legacy of non-alignment movement can present a new axis of peace and stability backed by Oman’s global reputation as a trusted facilitator, and India’s ascending economic and military might.

In conclusion, the fluid nature of global affairs underscores the importance of continuous strategic reassessment for India. In an era where alliances can shift and traditional power structures are challenged, India must adeptly navigate these uncertainties. Embracing a dynamic approach to diplomacy, economic cooperation, and military strategy will be essential in ensuring India's sustained rise as a global superpower. In this journey, India will need Oman, who has been a trusted partner, a good neighbour, and a reliable friend.