By Kim Severson
No one can predict with certainty what we will eat and drink in the new year, but multitudes try. As my own end-of-the-year ritual, I sift through an avalanche of predictions from big food companies, public relations firms, restaurant groups and market researchers. And then I get on the phone, interviewing the best prognosticators in the business.
I’m not interested in the next viral chickle or what will replace almond moms and girl dinners. Instead, I study small cultural, media and economic data points and watch the trends emerge. So what’s up for 2024? “I’d call it hi-lo,” said Andrew Freeman, president of AF & Co, a San Francisco consulting firm that for 16 years has published a popular food and hospitality trend report in conjunction with the brand and marketing firm Carbonate.
People want high-quality ingredients, but they also want value — especially members of Generation Z, who are emerging as sensible and skeptical cooks and diners who want safe rewards wrapped in adventure. Luxury will be found less in the cost or rarity of an ingredient but rather in the quality of a product that makes life easier, interesting and more fun. Here is what to watch for.
Snack Hype
Meals are so 2023. Next year will be all about snacks. Small, delicious bites are a low-stakes way to explore new cuisines. They’re a canvas for cultural hybrids like shawarma crunch wraps. And snack collaborations will continue to drop like sneakers. “Snacks can be the ultimate lowbrow cool,” said Claire Lancaster, who forecasts food and drink trends for the consumer trend forecaster WGSN.
Hydration Never Takes a Vacation
Water is going to be bigger than ever. #WaterTok — essentially millions of people watching other people add syrups and powders to giant tumblers of water — doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Look for an uptick in water sommeliers, the “premium hydration” category, and wearable hydration sensors.
Against the Grain
“It’s gonna be buckwheat’s year,” said Cathy Strange, the Whole Foods Market ambassador of food culture. During a recent trip to Norway, she had a foie gras terrine with a crunchy layer of buckwheat. In New York City, buckwheat is starring in hot chocolate and coating monkfish dressed in curry vinaigrette.
Sipping Your Supper
Thought espresso martinis were special? Meal-flavored cocktails would like a word. Through the magic of fat-washing, clarification and infusions, umami-heavy drinks that taste like specific dishes will proliferate as our collective palate shifts from super sweet to savory. Already, in New York, you can order a cocktail that tastes of Waldorf salad at Double Chicken Please in New York or a Caprese martini at Jac’s on Bond.
Got to Be Real
Concern over what it takes to create food from elaborate processing methods will explode. “Ultra-processed” will continue its rise as a toxic food phrase, according to a Mintel’s 2024 global food and drink trends report. Natural fermentation, cold-pressed oils, burgers from nuts and legumes and good, old-fashioned ingredients like butter and cream will have cachet.
Complex Heat
Heat will move from brain-exploding to nuanced and multidimensional, getting paired with sweet and sour flavors or being coaxed from layering flavors from different peppers from different parts of the world. “It’s not just ghost pepper coming at you,” Strange said.
Technology of the Year (Maybe)
Artificial intelligence will be a big part of the conversation, although many in the food business have NFT-level skepticism about the hype. Some of the changes AI might bring won’t be obvious to consumers, like tighter supply chains, food waste reduction in large kitchens and precision farming techniques. But others might, like new ways to save time in the kitchen or make dining out more enjoyable.
Florals
Color expert Pantone declared peach fuzz the color of the year, and several food prognosticators followed and endorsed peach as flavor of the year. Others say flavors like cherry blossom and violet will dominate. Wildflowers will abound. It’s all about lightness, femininity and new metrics that include kindness, altruism and cooperation.
Dish of the Year: Soup
Soup is bone broth’s more interesting younger sibling and the perfect vehicle for cross-cultural mashups, like menudo tonkotsu ramen. It’s also an easy way to dip into the rising popularity of food from Cambodia, Singapore and Indonesia. For cooks, it’s a low-risk, forgiving way to experiment with new flavors and ingredients. Soup uses up vegetables that might otherwise get tossed.
Other Trendlets
Philadelphia as a food town. The continued reign of pickled things. Desserts using sweetened condensed milk and meringue (but not necessarily at the same time). Pistachio everywhere, both the color and the nut. Products that embrace menopause and women’s health. Breadfruit. Shrimp toast in new and creative forms. - The New York Times
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