MUSCAT, JULY 3
Temperature increases recorded over the past several decades in the Sultanate of Oman are behind an escalating trend in heatwaves witnessed in recent years, according to key report released yesterday by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The Paris-headquartered intergovernmental body also cautioned that electricity demand is expected to scale new highs as the uptake of air-conditioning inevitably grows in these conditions, potentially straining the country’s predominantly gas-fired power generation system. Likewise, water-related challenges could be exacerbated due to climate impacts, while extreme weather events are likely to trigger floods with potential consequences for infrastructure and the environment, it said.
The report, titled ‘Climate Resilience for Energy Transition in Oman’, welcomes efforts by the Omani government to address climate change, notably through its commitments to Net Zero as part of a broader transition to a green-energy based future.
“Oman Vision 2040 and its National Energy Strategy set a target of scaling up renewables and improving energy efficiency, while the National Strategy for Adaptation and Mitigation to Climate Change and the second nationally determined contribution (NDC) recognise the need for energy infrastructure resilience against climate change impacts,” it said.
Nevertheless, the IEA stressed the need for further policy measures to achieve climate-resilient energy transitions in Oman. It noted in this regard the need for the completion of the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) and climate impact assessments.
“Government efforts to bring climate resilience considerations into the core of decision-making on energy projects through guidelines, regulations and project approval processes will catalyse action on resilience. In addition, its continuous support for the diversification of energy technologies and higher penetration of renewable energy will help the country cope better with climate-related shocks, facilitating its shift to alternative options and limiting energy supply disruption,” the report stated.
Citing the rising trend in mean temperature increases, the IEA report warns that Oman is expected to witness more frequent heatwaves in the coming decades. The mean annual temperature is projected to rise by about 5 deg C on average from 1990 to 2100, according to the Agency. In worst-case scenarios, the duration of heatwaves, lasting about 15 days in 1990, could lengthen to a staggering 280 days on average in 2100, it further cautions.
Two heatwave episodes that caused particular alarm were recorded in the past five years. In June 2018, the coastal town of Qurayat in Muscat Governorate recorded a minimum temperature that remained consistently above 41.9 deg C for 24 hours. Three years later in June 2021 a heatwave persisted for nearly one month in several parts of the country with temperatures hitting peaks of over 50°C.
Given these trends, implications for power generation networks, having to handle increasingly intense air-conditioning loads, will be significant, according to the report. Peak electricity demand, corresponding to the May-July period of the year, increased from 6,060 MW in 2015 to 7,081 MW in 2021, recording an average growth rate of 3 per cent. This trend is anticipate to rise to around 4 per cent until 2027, the report added.
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