Will the I2U2 give results?

Do you remember that one (or several times), when you rushed to submit an assignment at the last minute? A recent quick scan of the United States National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s points on Middle East Policy reminded me of those distant college days studying political science at West Virginia University and having to submit multiple assignments.

I must admit that the lack of patience and depth makes reviewing those submitted papers at the time a fun, yet painful experience at the same time. You would expect that a regional national security policy, by a major global power such as the US, that affects the lives of more than half a billion people would be written with more patience, depth and innovation.

In a bid to win the support of pro-Israel interest groups ahead of the upcoming presidential elections, the US President Biden's administration invested considerable time, energy and resources for the past 18 months in a forum called I2U2, which stands for the member countries: Israel, India, United States of America and United Arab Emirates, and designed to be a “moving forward better” plan than former president Trump’s Abrahamic Accords. While I2U2 media campaigns will resonate well for domestic politics and elections in the US it would be useful to think of a number of factors that would make it look less like and impactful initiative, and more like a rushed college assignment or a video game.

While the stated goals of I2U2 are better integration, partnership and deterrence in the region, facts on the ground show that for the past 40 years of signing an agreement with Israel came with catastrophic consequences for every country that signed, with no exceptions. The Egyptian economy is on a long recovery of journey, Jordan’s economy cannot survive without foreign investments, Sudan signed and descended into a civil war, Morocco’s economy has not improved, Lebanon’s marine agreement sent the Lebanese economy into further tailspin. In addition to unannounced security arrangements with Syria that lead to the deaths of a half million civilians, and at least 13.5 million refugees. Will new countries signing agreements succeed in lifting the curse? Only time will tell.

Our world’s largest democracy and information technology hub has been lured into this US regional policy by the promise of infrastructure initiatives. This includes railway projects connecting the Indian subcontinent to our region, however, without including the whole of the Indian subcontinent in these initiatives since the inception and design these infrastructure plans seem more like media campaigns than visionary peace and prosperity initiatives.

The UAE has been the most innovative and venturing lifestyle hub in the region in recent years, attracting top foreign direct investments and talents. The question is what value the other players can bring to the table that equals the value that the UAE is bringing given their previous track record in the region?

Our world could greatly benefit when global leaders invest in and share inspiring, visionary plans that put us, the main target audience people, first, yet the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Middle East policy points make I2U2 Forum sounds like another violet video game where the only role innocent bystanders play is to eventually loose. I am optimistic that other countries in the region will share more visionary plans in the future.