We often say that 'history repeats itself. However, what I really believe we really mean is that we, human beings, still repeat similar cycles of events and scenarios when we do not learn our lessons.
These days the cycle of events that humanity seems to be repeating, again in the 21st century, is the cycle of conflicts that aim at controlling as much as resources as possible by any means necessary.
While this cycle of events is our current reality it should not dictate our destiny. I believe that we have been blessed with the power to invest our time and energy into shaping our present and future.
Before committing to investing in shaping our present and our future we could deepen our understanding of three scenarios that bear resemblance to seasons, and are unfolding before us: Summer scenario, winter and khareef.
The summer scenario
Temperatures rise like the sun in every summer season. This particular summer, with the status quo of Western global domination and rising temperatures are witnessing rising prices of food, fuel and cost of living in general, exacerbated by post Covid-19 pandemic socio-economic disruptions.
For example, dissatisfaction with the performance of bureaucracy is spreading from Sri Lanka, the European Union and will likely keep spreading to other regions and countries due to the pains of energy transition.
As the world focuses more on global Environmental, Social and Governance or ESG policies that traditional policies the lower to middle income parts of the society are likely to struggle to adjust to higher costs associated with this transition, as opposed to the upper income parts of the society who are more resourceful and capable of weathering or even benefits from ESG policies.
In this scenario, climate change and conflicts continue, developed countries will keep being polarised between an artificial technologically-advanced north and less developed south. The wealth gap in the summer scenario continues to be the mean source of threats to safety, security and global stability.
The winter scenario
Russia is known from general winter, the season that contributed to saving its brave people from the invasions of armies of Emperor Napoleon and Nazi Germany.
This winter is helping Russia in a different way, it is deepening the EU’s dependence on Russian oil and gas. Russia today is presenting itself as the leader of the anti-western powers.
The challenge in this winter scenario is that we have witnessed the hegemony of the Soviet Union for 70 years of the 20th century. It has a legacy of a great superpower on its bright side, yet on the less bright side it has suppressed the cultures of Central Asia and reduced its people to second class citizens compared to ethnic Russians.
Moreover, it invaded Afghanistan sending the country into further downward spiral that continues to this day. While many around the world are following the disinformation campaigns between Russia and the West, there is no doubt that there is a dark side to superpowers claiming to champion the less fortunate around the world.
Russia has a great civilisation, yet should this coming cold winter come with a win for Russia. We are likely to witness more countries shredded to pieces to be added to the 14 million Syrian refugees.
The Khareef scenario
There is no refreshing breeze like the breeze of the monsoon season over the Governorate of Dhofar. Every summer, is known as the Khareef (which literally means fall season in Arabic). We could influence our present where we insist on global social and economic justice, and conflict resolution based on our common identity and destiny as partners on this earth, and not on our narrow artificial identities.
I lean towards investing our time and energy in the Khareef scenario, not because I hail from Dhofar, but because I see no bright future investing in a continuing status quo of western exploitation, or from investing in a dark, gloomy and authoritarian winter. We are the most learned and connected generations in history hence the most capable in investing in a better conflict-free future.
Is this Khareef scenario coming?
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