KYIV: The war in Ukraine threatens millions of tiny spring-time sprouts that should emerge from stalks of dormant winter wheat in the coming weeks. If the farmers can't feed those crops soon, far fewer of the so-called tillers will spout, jeopardising a national wheat harvest on which millions in the developing world depend.
The wheat was planted last autumn, which, after a brief growing period, fell dormant for the winter. Before the grain returns to life, however, farmers typically spread fertiliser that encourages the tillers to grow off the main stalks. Each stalk can have three or four tillers, increasing the yield per wheat stalk exponentially.
But Ukrainian farmers - who produced a record grain crop last year - say they now are short of fertiliser, as well as pesticides and herbicides. And even if they had enough of those materials, they can’t get enough fuel to power their equipment, they add.
Elena Neroba, a Kyiv-based business development manager at grain brokerage Maxigrain, said Ukraine’s winter wheat yields could fall by 15% compared to recent years if fertilisers aren’t applied now. Some farmers warn the situation could be much worse.
Some Ukrainian farmers said their wheat yields could be cut in half, and perhaps by more, which has implications far beyond Ukraine. Countries such as Lebanon, Egypt, Yemen and others have come to rely on Ukrainian wheat in recent years. The war has already caused wheat prices to skyrocket - rising by 50% in the last month.
The Ukrainian farming crisis comes as food prices around the world already have been spiking for months amid global supply chain problems attributed to the Covid-19 pandemic. World food prices hit a record high in February, and have risen over 24% in a year, the UN food agency said last week. Agriculture ministers from the world's seven largest advanced economies were due to discuss in a virtual meeting the impact of war on global food security and how best to stabilise food markets.
Ukraine and Russia are major wheat exporters, together accounting for about a third of world exports- almost all of which passes through the Black Sea.
Svein Tore Holsether, president of Norway-based Yara International, the world’s largest maker of nitrogen-based fertilisers, said he is worried that tens of millions of people will suffer food shortages because of the farming crisis in Ukraine. "For me, it's not whether we are moving into a global food crisis,” he said. "It's how large the crisis will be."
Ukrainian officials say they are still hopeful the country will have a relatively successful year. Much of that hope rests with farmers in the west of the country, which, so far, remains distant from the shooting.
But officials are taking measures to protect domestic supplies to ensure Ukraine’s population gets fed -- posing another possible hit to export shipments. Agriculture Minister Roman Leshchenko said on Tuesday the country was banning the export of various staples, including wheat. Leshchenko has acknowledged the threat to Ukraine’s food supply and that the government was doing what it can to help farmers.
"We understand that food for the entire state depends on what will be in the fields,” he said in televised remarks on Monday.
Moscow says it is conducting a special military operation in Ukraine to demilitarise and capture dangerous nationalists. It has denied deliberately targeting civilians and civil infrastructure, despite documented attacks on hospitals, apartment buildings and railroads.
Grain exports are a cornerstone of Ukraine’s economy.
In the coming weeks, farmers should also start planting other crops, such as corn and sunflowers, but they are struggling to get the seeds they need, said Dykun Andriy, chairman of the Ukrainian Agricultural Council, which represents about 1,000 farmers cultivating five million hectares.
Andriy warned that the fuel is the critical problem now. Unless farmers can get diesel to run their equipment, spring farmwork will be impossible and this year’s harvests doomed. "Farmers are desperate,” he said. "There is a big risk that we don't have enough food to feed our people.”
Maxigrain’s Neroba said farmers are facing fuel shortages because military needs take priority.
Ukrainian farmer Oleksandr Chumak said little work is happening in his fields, some 200 km north of the Black Sea port of Odessa. He farms 3,000 hectares (about 7,500 acres) where he grows wheat, corn, sunflowers and rapeseed. Even if he had enough fuel to get his equipment into the fields, he said he had insufficient fertiliser for all of his crops and no herbicides.
"Usually we have maybe six to seven tonnes (of wheat) per hectare. This year, I think that if we get three tonnes per hectare, it will be very good,” Chumak said. He added he remains hopeful that Ukrainian farmers will find a way to grow enough food to feed their countrymen, but he does not expect much will be exported.
In northern Ukraine, he said friends of his have been reduced to skimming fuel from a ditch that was filled with diesel after a Russian attack on a train spilled fuel from several tankers. Other friends, in the occupied areas near Kherson, are scavenging diesel from ambushed and abandoned Russian tanker convoys, Chumak said.
Currently, he spends much of his time preparing for a Russian assault. "I live in Odessa. Every day I see rockets fly over my house.”
Val Sigaev, a grain broker at R J O'Brien in Kyiv, who evacuated last week, said it is unclear how much of the usual spring farming -- planting and fertilising -- would be possible. High prices for natural gas - a major input for fertiliser - sent fertiliser prices up, so some farmers postponed purchases.
"Some people think we could plant as much as half of the crop,” Sigaev said. "Others say that only the West will see plantings and what is produced will be strictly for Ukrainian needs.”
The situation is especially dire in the southern port city of Kherson, the first Ukrainian city Russia captured. Spring-like weather adds to farmers’ urgency, if they don't tend to their fields now this year’s harvest will be a bust. -- Reuters
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