Trump gains with Hispanic men, Harris up with white women, polls show
Published: 07:10 PM,Oct 25,2024 | EDITED : 11:10 PM,Oct 25,2024
Former US President Donald Trump and US Vice President Kamala Harris
WASHINGTON: Republican Donald Trump has nearly erased Democrats' longstanding advantage among Hispanic men ahead of the November 5 presidential election when he will face Democrat Kamala Harris, according to an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling. Former President Trump now trails Vice President Harris by just 2 percentage points among Hispanic men - 44 per cent to 46 per cent - compared with his 19 point deficit with Democrat Joe Biden at the same point in 2020, according to the analysis of more than 15,000 responses to Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in the month through October 21 and during the same period of 2020.
Trump's gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, who favoured him over Biden by 12 points late in 2020 but now lean Republican by 3 points, 46 per cent to 43 per cent. The two candidates are locked in an exceptionally tight race, with Harris up only marginally - 46 per cent to 43 per cent - in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 16-21.
The shifts are part of larger changes in the coalitions that each candidate is counting on for victory, with Trump boosting his advantage with Hispanic and Black voters - particularly men - while Harris has cut away at the Republicans' longstanding edge with white voters by gaining ground with women.
Robert Alomia, a Hispanic voter in Elizabeth, New Jersey, who works at a security firm, said he respects Trump's career as a businessman and plans to vote for him this year after sitting out the 2020 election.
'We need people who think quick and people who are willing to lead - he’s a leader,' said Alomia, 42, who said he was also sympathetic to Trump's hardline views on immigration. 'You have these people that come into the country where they get everything, and basically the door is open for them.'
Trump has accused the Biden administration of leaving the southern border open to migrants while Harris has pushed back against that by blaming Trump for pressuring Republicans in Congress to jettison a bipartisan border security bill that have would tightened border controls.
Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the US electorate, have leaned heavily Democratic in most presidential elections since the 1970s but Trump has made significant inroads.
The analysis of recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump with support from 37 per cent of registered Hispanic voters, up from 30 per cent at the same point in 2020. Harris is at 51 per cent compared to Biden's 54 per cent four years earlier. The numbers are subject to sampling error, and have levels of precision of between 2 and 6 percentage points.
Trump ended up winning 38 per cent of the Hispanic votes in 2020, 21 points below Biden but still the biggest share for a Republican candidate since President George W Bush won 44 per cent in 2004, according to a 2020 exit poll analysis by the Pew Research Center and historical figures compiled by the American Enterprise Institute.
The Republican is also on track to whittle away at the edges of Democrats' strength in the Black electorate. Some 18 per centof Black men picked him in recent Reuters/Ipsos polls - up from 14 per cent four years earlier - as did 8 per centof Black women, up from 4 per cent. Exit polls after the 2020 election showed that about 8 per cent of Black voters overall picked Trump in 2020, while the recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows him at 12 per cent.
Trump's gains have been offset by increased support for Harris among white women, who favoured him over Biden by 12 points late in 2020 but now lean Republican by 3 points, 46 per cent to 43 per cent. The two candidates are locked in an exceptionally tight race, with Harris up only marginally - 46 per cent to 43 per cent - in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted October 16-21.
The shifts are part of larger changes in the coalitions that each candidate is counting on for victory, with Trump boosting his advantage with Hispanic and Black voters - particularly men - while Harris has cut away at the Republicans' longstanding edge with white voters by gaining ground with women.
Robert Alomia, a Hispanic voter in Elizabeth, New Jersey, who works at a security firm, said he respects Trump's career as a businessman and plans to vote for him this year after sitting out the 2020 election.
'We need people who think quick and people who are willing to lead - he’s a leader,' said Alomia, 42, who said he was also sympathetic to Trump's hardline views on immigration. 'You have these people that come into the country where they get everything, and basically the door is open for them.'
Trump has accused the Biden administration of leaving the southern border open to migrants while Harris has pushed back against that by blaming Trump for pressuring Republicans in Congress to jettison a bipartisan border security bill that have would tightened border controls.
Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing segment of the US electorate, have leaned heavily Democratic in most presidential elections since the 1970s but Trump has made significant inroads.
The analysis of recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Trump with support from 37 per cent of registered Hispanic voters, up from 30 per cent at the same point in 2020. Harris is at 51 per cent compared to Biden's 54 per cent four years earlier. The numbers are subject to sampling error, and have levels of precision of between 2 and 6 percentage points.
Trump ended up winning 38 per cent of the Hispanic votes in 2020, 21 points below Biden but still the biggest share for a Republican candidate since President George W Bush won 44 per cent in 2004, according to a 2020 exit poll analysis by the Pew Research Center and historical figures compiled by the American Enterprise Institute.
The Republican is also on track to whittle away at the edges of Democrats' strength in the Black electorate. Some 18 per centof Black men picked him in recent Reuters/Ipsos polls - up from 14 per cent four years earlier - as did 8 per centof Black women, up from 4 per cent. Exit polls after the 2020 election showed that about 8 per cent of Black voters overall picked Trump in 2020, while the recent Reuters/Ipsos polling shows him at 12 per cent.