Ukraine’s push into Russia met early success
The ultimate strategy and goals of the attack, though, are still murky. Western allies, including the United States and Germany, say they are watching and monitoring the situation
Published: 07:08 PM,Aug 17,2024 | EDITED : 11:08 PM,Aug 17,2024
Displaced people at a boxing club acting as a temporary shelter for people arriving from the border with Ukraine in Kursk, Russia, on Aug. 14, 2024. (Tyler Hicks/The New York Times)
The success of Ukraine’s secret incursion into Russia is clear. Ukrainian forces pushed past two lines of Russian defenses in the southwestern region of Kursk and moved through Russian highways and villages with little resistance. Since the operation began 11 days ago, they have gone beyond Kursk to the neighboring region of Belgorod, putting other communities on edge and rattling Moscow.
The ultimate strategy and goals of the attack, though, are still murky. Western allies, including the United States and Germany, say they are watching and monitoring the situation but letting Ukraine lead the way. Even the Ukrainian leadership seems surprised by the extent of the operation’s initial success, the first time that Russia, a nuclear power, has been invaded since World War II.
Ukrainian forces could try to keep pushing farther into Russia. They could dig into the territory they now hold and try to defend it. Or, battered by continual losses in eastern Ukraine, especially this week near the strategically important city of Pokrovsk, they could decide that they have made the point to the West, and to Moscow, that Russia is not invincible. In that case, they could then pull back.
“We are playing here a bit on the psychological point that great powers do not lose their territories,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst from Come Back Alive, a foundation that provides support to members of Ukraine’s military. If Russia loses, “it means that they are not that big.”
Ukrainian officials have told senior U.S. civilian and military officials that the operation aims to create an operational dilemma for the Russians — to force Moscow to divert troops off the front lines in the eastern Ukraine region of Donetsk, where they have made slow but steady progress for weeks.
But the operation has also created a vulnerability for Ukraine. Some of its valuable, battle-hardened soldiers from the 600-mile front line in eastern and southern Ukraine have moved to Kursk. And that has weakened its positions in eastern Ukraine.
So far, the Ukrainians have not talked publicly about their plans in Russian territory. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, who took over as Ukraine’s top military commander in February, claimed Thursday that his troops had pushed more than 21 miles into Russia. He said that Ukraine controlled more than 80 Russian settlements in the Kursk region, including Sudzha, a town of 6,000. The claims could not be independently verified, although analysts say that Sudzha is likely under full Ukrainian control.
Fighting has also expanded to the neighboring regions of Belgorod and Bryansk, where Russia has introduced counterterrorism measures.
As Ukrainian soldiers make inroads into Russia, the leadership appears to be making plans to hold ground, analysts say.
Syrsky said that Ukraine had set up its first military office in Kursk. A deputy prime minister talked about creating a humanitarian corridor extending from the Kursk region south to the Ukrainian border region of Sumy. At a Wednesday meeting, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian troops were protecting Russian citizens and following the rules of international law.
So far, Ukrainian troops do not seem to be building the kind of entrenched lines seen in eastern Ukraine, where trenches, antiarmored vehicle ditches and antitank pyramid obstacles known as dragon’s teeth dot the landscape.
Any fixed position would be exposed to potentially devastating Russian airstrikes and would be difficult to defend against Russian troops attacking from different sides. Russia, after all, has the upper hand in forces and weapons.
Kuzan said Ukraine should instead continue to execute what he called “highly maneuverable combat operations,” by attacking where Russia does not expect and performing raids with small units to probe and destabilize Russian defenses.
Ukraine also claims to have captured hundreds of Russian prisoners of war, who could be traded for Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia. The Russians guarding the border posts in Kursk were mostly conscripts, forced to serve as part of Russia’s mobilization, as opposed to the battle-hardened contract soldiers and irregular forces fighting in Ukraine’s east and south.
The real goals of the operation may not be on the Russia battlefield. After the failure of Ukraine’s much-advertised counteroffensive last year and the ongoing losses in the east, it appears to be trying to change the war’s narrative. The Ukrainians may be trying to convince the West that they will not give up, and that the United States in particular should allow them to use American long-range cruise missiles inside Russia.
The ultimate strategy and goals of the attack, though, are still murky. Western allies, including the United States and Germany, say they are watching and monitoring the situation but letting Ukraine lead the way. Even the Ukrainian leadership seems surprised by the extent of the operation’s initial success, the first time that Russia, a nuclear power, has been invaded since World War II.
Ukrainian forces could try to keep pushing farther into Russia. They could dig into the territory they now hold and try to defend it. Or, battered by continual losses in eastern Ukraine, especially this week near the strategically important city of Pokrovsk, they could decide that they have made the point to the West, and to Moscow, that Russia is not invincible. In that case, they could then pull back.
“We are playing here a bit on the psychological point that great powers do not lose their territories,” said Mykola Bielieskov, a senior analyst from Come Back Alive, a foundation that provides support to members of Ukraine’s military. If Russia loses, “it means that they are not that big.”
Ukrainian officials have told senior U.S. civilian and military officials that the operation aims to create an operational dilemma for the Russians — to force Moscow to divert troops off the front lines in the eastern Ukraine region of Donetsk, where they have made slow but steady progress for weeks.
But the operation has also created a vulnerability for Ukraine. Some of its valuable, battle-hardened soldiers from the 600-mile front line in eastern and southern Ukraine have moved to Kursk. And that has weakened its positions in eastern Ukraine.
So far, the Ukrainians have not talked publicly about their plans in Russian territory. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, who took over as Ukraine’s top military commander in February, claimed Thursday that his troops had pushed more than 21 miles into Russia. He said that Ukraine controlled more than 80 Russian settlements in the Kursk region, including Sudzha, a town of 6,000. The claims could not be independently verified, although analysts say that Sudzha is likely under full Ukrainian control.
Fighting has also expanded to the neighboring regions of Belgorod and Bryansk, where Russia has introduced counterterrorism measures.
As Ukrainian soldiers make inroads into Russia, the leadership appears to be making plans to hold ground, analysts say.
Syrsky said that Ukraine had set up its first military office in Kursk. A deputy prime minister talked about creating a humanitarian corridor extending from the Kursk region south to the Ukrainian border region of Sumy. At a Wednesday meeting, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian troops were protecting Russian citizens and following the rules of international law.
So far, Ukrainian troops do not seem to be building the kind of entrenched lines seen in eastern Ukraine, where trenches, antiarmored vehicle ditches and antitank pyramid obstacles known as dragon’s teeth dot the landscape.
Any fixed position would be exposed to potentially devastating Russian airstrikes and would be difficult to defend against Russian troops attacking from different sides. Russia, after all, has the upper hand in forces and weapons.
Kuzan said Ukraine should instead continue to execute what he called “highly maneuverable combat operations,” by attacking where Russia does not expect and performing raids with small units to probe and destabilize Russian defenses.
Ukraine also claims to have captured hundreds of Russian prisoners of war, who could be traded for Ukrainian prisoners held by Russia. The Russians guarding the border posts in Kursk were mostly conscripts, forced to serve as part of Russia’s mobilization, as opposed to the battle-hardened contract soldiers and irregular forces fighting in Ukraine’s east and south.
The real goals of the operation may not be on the Russia battlefield. After the failure of Ukraine’s much-advertised counteroffensive last year and the ongoing losses in the east, it appears to be trying to change the war’s narrative. The Ukrainians may be trying to convince the West that they will not give up, and that the United States in particular should allow them to use American long-range cruise missiles inside Russia.