China’s factory output decline dampens hopes for quick economic rebound
Published: 03:08 PM,Aug 15,2024 | EDITED : 07:08 PM,Aug 15,2024
FILE PHOTO: Employees work at the production line of aluminium rolls at a factory in Zouping, Shandong province, China
Oil prices rose on Thursday, supported by optimism that potential US interest rate cuts will boost economic activity and fuel consumption, though concerns over slower global demand curbed gains.
Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.24 per cent, to $79.95 a barrel by 0625 GMT, recovering some of the previous day’s losses. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 23 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $77.21 per barrel.
Both benchmarks fell more than 1 per cent on Wednesday after US crude inventories rose unexpectedly and on easing worries about a wider Middle East conflict. US consumer prices rose moderately in July, and the annual increase in inflation slowed to below 3 per cent for the first time in nearly 3-1/2 years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
“We saw a correction in Asia trade as the oil market was oversold on Wednesday,” said Yuki Takashima, economist at Nomura Securities, adding that investors are betting the Fed could start cutting rates next month. — Reuters
BEIJING: China’s factory output slowed for a third straight month in July, showing the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy was losing steam, although the battered consumer sector perked up slightly as stimulus targeting households took effect.
A mixed batch of data on Thursday pointed to a patchy start to the second half for the $19 trillion economy and gave policymakers continued cause for concern following dismal export, prices, and bank lending indicators earlier this month.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed industrial output grew 5.1 per cent from a year earlier, slowing from the 5.3 per cent pace in June and below analysts’ forecasts for a 5.2-per cent increase.
In contrast, retail sales rose 2.7 per cent in July, quickening from a 2.0-per cent increase in June and beating expectations for growth of 2.6 per cent.
Overall, analysts say the data steps up the urgency for policymakers to roll out more support measures aimed at consumers instead of pouring funds into infrastructure.
“Economic momentum appears to have stabilised somewhat last month, with a pick-up in consumer spending and servicing activity largely offsetting a slowdown in investment and industrial production,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.
“With the government ramping up policy support, we think a modest recovery could take hold over the coming months.”
Chinese leaders last month signalled they would give greater consideration to a new economic playbook and focus stimulus on consumers rather than infrastructure and manufacturing.
US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as the latest inflation data reassured investors betting the Federal Reserve would start cutting US interest rates next month.
The state planner last month said about 150 billion yuan ($20.97 billion) raised through special debt issuance this year would subsidise a consumer goods trade-in programme.
“Consumer demand continued to recover, as policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption gained traction,” said Liu Aihua, an NBS spokesperson.
With 70 per cent of Chinese household wealth held in real estate, a sector that at its peak accounted for a quarter of the economy, consumers have kept their wallets shut tight.
There were few signs of prospects improving with separate data on Thursday showing China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in July, as supportive policies failed to restore confidence in the struggling sector. — Reuters
Further signs of depressed demand were evident in the Asian giant’s commodities usage with China’s oil refinery output for the month down 6.1 per cent from a year earlier and crude steel output falling for a second month.
Fixed asset investment expanded 3.6 per cent in the first seven months of 2024 year-on-year, but also missed expectations for a 3.9 per cent rise and slowed from the 3.9 per cent growth in the January to June period.
Analysts have broadly welcomed support targeting consumer spending but warn other policy levers will need to be pulled to put the economy on an even keel.
Calls for more growth-boosting measures have dogged officials ever since a widely expected post-pandemic recovery failed to materialise in 2022.
While the government is still targeting growth of around 5 per cent this year, analysts are concerned the world’s production powerhouse has entered a prolonged economic malaise similar to Japan’s in the 1990s. That suggests bolder reforms may be needed to revive growth.
On Thursday, the central bank injected cash through a short-term bond instrument and said it would conduct a rollover of its medium-term lending facility (MLF) later this month as it extends liquidity support to the financial system.
China’s central bank at a meeting earlier this month said it would step up financial support to the broader economy and efforts would be directed more at consumers to spur consumption. But with domestic demand so weak and the outlook unclear, households and businesses are in no rush to borrow, suggesting other changes may be needed.
“The data shows that the economy has gotten off to a weak start in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the probability of replacing MLF with a RRR cut will increase, but key to maintaining 5 per cent economic growth remains the arrival of fiscal spending,” said ANZ China market economist Xing Zhaopeng, referring to the central bank’s reserve requirement ratio. — Reuters
Brent crude futures rose 19 cents, or 0.24 per cent, to $79.95 a barrel by 0625 GMT, recovering some of the previous day’s losses. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased by 23 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $77.21 per barrel.
Both benchmarks fell more than 1 per cent on Wednesday after US crude inventories rose unexpectedly and on easing worries about a wider Middle East conflict. US consumer prices rose moderately in July, and the annual increase in inflation slowed to below 3 per cent for the first time in nearly 3-1/2 years, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
“We saw a correction in Asia trade as the oil market was oversold on Wednesday,” said Yuki Takashima, economist at Nomura Securities, adding that investors are betting the Fed could start cutting rates next month. — Reuters
BEIJING: China’s factory output slowed for a third straight month in July, showing the recovery in the world’s second-largest economy was losing steam, although the battered consumer sector perked up slightly as stimulus targeting households took effect.
A mixed batch of data on Thursday pointed to a patchy start to the second half for the $19 trillion economy and gave policymakers continued cause for concern following dismal export, prices, and bank lending indicators earlier this month.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed industrial output grew 5.1 per cent from a year earlier, slowing from the 5.3 per cent pace in June and below analysts’ forecasts for a 5.2-per cent increase.
In contrast, retail sales rose 2.7 per cent in July, quickening from a 2.0-per cent increase in June and beating expectations for growth of 2.6 per cent.
Overall, analysts say the data steps up the urgency for policymakers to roll out more support measures aimed at consumers instead of pouring funds into infrastructure.
“Economic momentum appears to have stabilised somewhat last month, with a pick-up in consumer spending and servicing activity largely offsetting a slowdown in investment and industrial production,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics.
“With the government ramping up policy support, we think a modest recovery could take hold over the coming months.”
Chinese leaders last month signalled they would give greater consideration to a new economic playbook and focus stimulus on consumers rather than infrastructure and manufacturing.
US stocks closed higher on Wednesday as the latest inflation data reassured investors betting the Federal Reserve would start cutting US interest rates next month.
The state planner last month said about 150 billion yuan ($20.97 billion) raised through special debt issuance this year would subsidise a consumer goods trade-in programme.
“Consumer demand continued to recover, as policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption gained traction,” said Liu Aihua, an NBS spokesperson.
With 70 per cent of Chinese household wealth held in real estate, a sector that at its peak accounted for a quarter of the economy, consumers have kept their wallets shut tight.
There were few signs of prospects improving with separate data on Thursday showing China’s new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in July, as supportive policies failed to restore confidence in the struggling sector. — Reuters
Further signs of depressed demand were evident in the Asian giant’s commodities usage with China’s oil refinery output for the month down 6.1 per cent from a year earlier and crude steel output falling for a second month.
Fixed asset investment expanded 3.6 per cent in the first seven months of 2024 year-on-year, but also missed expectations for a 3.9 per cent rise and slowed from the 3.9 per cent growth in the January to June period.
Analysts have broadly welcomed support targeting consumer spending but warn other policy levers will need to be pulled to put the economy on an even keel.
Calls for more growth-boosting measures have dogged officials ever since a widely expected post-pandemic recovery failed to materialise in 2022.
While the government is still targeting growth of around 5 per cent this year, analysts are concerned the world’s production powerhouse has entered a prolonged economic malaise similar to Japan’s in the 1990s. That suggests bolder reforms may be needed to revive growth.
On Thursday, the central bank injected cash through a short-term bond instrument and said it would conduct a rollover of its medium-term lending facility (MLF) later this month as it extends liquidity support to the financial system.
China’s central bank at a meeting earlier this month said it would step up financial support to the broader economy and efforts would be directed more at consumers to spur consumption. But with domestic demand so weak and the outlook unclear, households and businesses are in no rush to borrow, suggesting other changes may be needed.
“The data shows that the economy has gotten off to a weak start in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the probability of replacing MLF with a RRR cut will increase, but key to maintaining 5 per cent economic growth remains the arrival of fiscal spending,” said ANZ China market economist Xing Zhaopeng, referring to the central bank’s reserve requirement ratio. — Reuters