Ukraine awaits brutal winter...
Published: 02:10 PM,Oct 26,2023 | EDITED : 06:10 PM,Oct 26,2023
With the world’s attention fixed on the Middle East, officials in Ukraine say they are facing a new threat: crude Russian drones that appear to be launched with the sole intention of exhausting Ukrainian rockets fired to shoot them down.
According to Ukrainian national television, the small drones carry reflectors to ensure they are detected, sometimes taking pictures to identify the sites of anti-aircraft radars and missile systems. Built from cheap components readily available online, each drone is estimated to cost around $1,500, less than each of the sometimes multiple rockets fired to bring them down.
Russian television pundits have reacted to the unexpected October 7 assault against Israel with barely concealed glee, predicting conflict in the Middle East will dramatically reduce Western support for Kyiv.
Many Ukrainian commentators offer the same analysis, worrying in particular that outrage at mounting Palestinian casualties in Gaza already see fragile support for Ukraine among poorer 'Global South' nations and divert military aid the Kyiv government badly needs.
Earlier this month, Russia announced its defence spending for 2024 would be almost $110 billion, three times the level before its February 2022 war on Ukraine and almost 30 per cent of government spending.
Ukraine intends to spend around $40 billion on defence next year, roughly half the government budget and 20 per cent of the country’s entire economic output - but it is also counting on tens of billions more in foreign military aid, as long as Western donors are still willing to provide it.
When it comes to air defence rockets and artillery shells, Kyiv is now competing directly with Israel for Western supplies, especially from the United States. In recent weeks, Russian and Ukrainian forces have been on the offensive ahead of deteriorating weather likely to limit movement.
Each has made occasional advances, with elements of two Ukrainian marine brigades reported to have broken through on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, potentially threatening Russian artillery positions that have repeatedly shelled the recaptured Ukrainian city of Kherson.
An advance there might allow Kyiv to better threaten Russian-held Crimea, already under Ukrainian strikes from newly supplied Western missiles that have forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to seek another base.
While Ukrainian officials would not confirm the landings, military bloggers and media citing military sources said the marines had seized at least three small settlements. Ukrainian troops on the far bank were being resupplied by small boats under heavy fire, they said.
Russian forces foiled several attempts by Ukrainian units to cross the Dnipro River, Russia's defence ministry said on Sunday. On Monday, the Kyiv Post reported an appeal by Robert Brovdi, commander of a Ukrainian drone unit supported through crowdfunding, for Zodiac-type dinghies to support the offensive. By Tuesday, he said he had raised almost $1 million, roughly a third of the amount he said was needed to deliver up to 100 craft.
Further east in the Donbas, Russian forces have been making their own assault against heavily fortified Ukrainian strongholds around Avdiivka, among the last significant settlements in the region not under the control of Russian-speaking separatists.
A shortage of personnel is a growing problem for both sides. US officials estimated in August that 70,000 to 80,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded so far in Ukraine, with recruitment challenges forcing the Kremlin to turn to prisoners and unfit and older conscripts. Ukraine will not discuss its losses, but in August President Volodymyr Zelenskiy fired the heads of each regional recruiting command after a string of scandals over bribery and other efforts to avoid the draft.
Ukrainian officials say they expect Russia to again strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter in the hope of freezing the population, also attacking Kyiv’s ability to earn money from exports.
Russian drones and missiles have also repeatedly hit the port of Odessa and along the Danube, damaging harbour infrastructure. Ukraine’s September grain exports were 50 per cent down on a year earlier, something traders and industry experts said was largely down to those attacks.
Ukraine will need every air defence missile it can get throughout the winter - hence Russia’s willingness to sacrifice its most basic drones. A growing shortage of artillery shells is if anything more serious, with frontline reports suggesting Ukrainian troops are struggling to get enough ammunition to use roughly 350 donated Western-calibre artillery pieces.
The United States and European Union have each pledged to send Ukraine roughly a million 155-mm shells, with the US donation in part coming from strategic stocks the Pentagon keeps in Israel. On Monday, a senior Pentagon official confirmed some of those were being reallocated back to Israeli forces.
Whether the Pentagon will find replacement stocks for Ukraine is unclear. Ukrainian officials say both their war and the Middle East conflict show the West must dramatically increase its arms manufacturing capability, pointing to a new deal with Germany to manufacture weapons in Ukraine as something to be replicated.
This month has also seen Ukraine announce the arrival of long-range US ATACMS missiles with a range of around 160 km, giving it much greater ability to strike Russian rear areas including airfields. Ukrainian officials said the first strikes - which use cluster munitions to hit a larger area - destroyed nine Russian helicopters and other equipment.
According to Ukrainian national television, the small drones carry reflectors to ensure they are detected, sometimes taking pictures to identify the sites of anti-aircraft radars and missile systems. Built from cheap components readily available online, each drone is estimated to cost around $1,500, less than each of the sometimes multiple rockets fired to bring them down.
Russian television pundits have reacted to the unexpected October 7 assault against Israel with barely concealed glee, predicting conflict in the Middle East will dramatically reduce Western support for Kyiv.
Many Ukrainian commentators offer the same analysis, worrying in particular that outrage at mounting Palestinian casualties in Gaza already see fragile support for Ukraine among poorer 'Global South' nations and divert military aid the Kyiv government badly needs.
Earlier this month, Russia announced its defence spending for 2024 would be almost $110 billion, three times the level before its February 2022 war on Ukraine and almost 30 per cent of government spending.
Ukraine intends to spend around $40 billion on defence next year, roughly half the government budget and 20 per cent of the country’s entire economic output - but it is also counting on tens of billions more in foreign military aid, as long as Western donors are still willing to provide it.
When it comes to air defence rockets and artillery shells, Kyiv is now competing directly with Israel for Western supplies, especially from the United States. In recent weeks, Russian and Ukrainian forces have been on the offensive ahead of deteriorating weather likely to limit movement.
Each has made occasional advances, with elements of two Ukrainian marine brigades reported to have broken through on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, potentially threatening Russian artillery positions that have repeatedly shelled the recaptured Ukrainian city of Kherson.
An advance there might allow Kyiv to better threaten Russian-held Crimea, already under Ukrainian strikes from newly supplied Western missiles that have forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to seek another base.
While Ukrainian officials would not confirm the landings, military bloggers and media citing military sources said the marines had seized at least three small settlements. Ukrainian troops on the far bank were being resupplied by small boats under heavy fire, they said.
Russian forces foiled several attempts by Ukrainian units to cross the Dnipro River, Russia's defence ministry said on Sunday. On Monday, the Kyiv Post reported an appeal by Robert Brovdi, commander of a Ukrainian drone unit supported through crowdfunding, for Zodiac-type dinghies to support the offensive. By Tuesday, he said he had raised almost $1 million, roughly a third of the amount he said was needed to deliver up to 100 craft.
Further east in the Donbas, Russian forces have been making their own assault against heavily fortified Ukrainian strongholds around Avdiivka, among the last significant settlements in the region not under the control of Russian-speaking separatists.
A shortage of personnel is a growing problem for both sides. US officials estimated in August that 70,000 to 80,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded so far in Ukraine, with recruitment challenges forcing the Kremlin to turn to prisoners and unfit and older conscripts. Ukraine will not discuss its losses, but in August President Volodymyr Zelenskiy fired the heads of each regional recruiting command after a string of scandals over bribery and other efforts to avoid the draft.
Ukrainian officials say they expect Russia to again strike Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter in the hope of freezing the population, also attacking Kyiv’s ability to earn money from exports.
Russian drones and missiles have also repeatedly hit the port of Odessa and along the Danube, damaging harbour infrastructure. Ukraine’s September grain exports were 50 per cent down on a year earlier, something traders and industry experts said was largely down to those attacks.
Ukraine will need every air defence missile it can get throughout the winter - hence Russia’s willingness to sacrifice its most basic drones. A growing shortage of artillery shells is if anything more serious, with frontline reports suggesting Ukrainian troops are struggling to get enough ammunition to use roughly 350 donated Western-calibre artillery pieces.
The United States and European Union have each pledged to send Ukraine roughly a million 155-mm shells, with the US donation in part coming from strategic stocks the Pentagon keeps in Israel. On Monday, a senior Pentagon official confirmed some of those were being reallocated back to Israeli forces.
Whether the Pentagon will find replacement stocks for Ukraine is unclear. Ukrainian officials say both their war and the Middle East conflict show the West must dramatically increase its arms manufacturing capability, pointing to a new deal with Germany to manufacture weapons in Ukraine as something to be replicated.
This month has also seen Ukraine announce the arrival of long-range US ATACMS missiles with a range of around 160 km, giving it much greater ability to strike Russian rear areas including airfields. Ukrainian officials said the first strikes - which use cluster munitions to hit a larger area - destroyed nine Russian helicopters and other equipment.