Trump and the global economic risk picture
We have entered a period of intensifying geopolitical rivalries and conflicts. Russia’s war on Ukraine is now in its third year; the Israel-Hamas conflict could still become a regional war; and the...
Artificial Intelligence vs human stupidity
Since returning from this year’s World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, I have been asked repeatedly for my biggest takeaways. Among the most widely discussed issues this year was artificial...
Where will the global economy land in 2024?
Around this time a year ago, about 85 per cent of economists and market analysts – including me – expected that the US and global economy would suffer a recession. Falling but still-sticky...
What climate finance needs
Reza Bundy is Co-founder and CEO of Atlas Capital TeamAs we move from UN Climate Week to COP28 in Dubai later this year, we must stop the “greenwishing” and “greenwashing” and start thinking...
The coming doom loop
In January 2022, when yields on US ten-year Treasury bonds were still roughly 1% and those on German Bonds were -0.5%, I warned that inflation would be bad for both stocks and bonds.Higher inflation...
More war means more inflation
Inflation rose sharply throughout 2022 across both advanced economies and emerging markets. Structural trends suggest that the problem will be secular, rather than transitory. Specifically, many...
From great moderation to great stagflation
The world economy is undergoing a radical regime shift. The decades-long Great Moderation is over.Coming after the stagflation (high inflation and severe recessions) of the 1970s and early 1980s, the...
A stagflationary debt crisis looms
The global financial and economic outlook for the year ahead has soured rapidly in recent months, with policymakers, investors, and households now asking how much they should revise their...
The gathering stagflationary storm
The new reality with which many advanced economies and emerging markets must reckon is higher inflation and slowing economic growth. And a big reason for the current bout of stagflation is a series of...
Inflation will hurt both stocks and bonds
Rising inflation in the United States and around the world is forcing investors to assess the likely effects on both “risky” assets (generally stocks) and “safe” assets (such as US Treasury...
What South Africa must do...
South Africa is at a crossroads. To save its democratic project, it needs to put itself on a path to inclusive, dynamic growth, creating a virtuous cycle that delivers on Nelson Mandela’s promise of...