‘Energy security and energy transition are not mutually exclusive’

MUSCAT: In a compelling keynote address at the 18th Annual GPCA Forum, Prof Christof Rühl, a renowned Senior Research Scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, laid out a thought-provoking exploration of the intricate interplay between energy transition, energy security, and economic warfare in the context of rising global uncertainty. His address, enriched by decades of expertise at institutions like BP, the World Bank, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, served as both a reality check and a roadmap for the petrochemical industry as it navigates unprecedented challenges.

Prof Rühl began his address with a sobering observation: the global energy landscape is undergoing another seismic shift. While the broader narrative of the energy transition has remained consistent over the past two decades, recent geopolitical events, particularly the conflict in Ukraine, have thrust energy security to the forefront of international discourse. This dual challenge—balancing the urgency of transitioning to sustainable energy sources with the immediate need for reliable energy supplies—has created an era of profound complexity for policymakers and industry stakeholders alike.

Rühl set the stage by emphasizing that his analysis was not a denial of climate change or the need for sustainable energy but a critique of the oversimplified narratives often surrounding these topics. He stressed the importance of pragmatic approaches that account for the realities of energy systems and global interdependencies.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has underscored the fragility of global energy systems. Europe, heavily reliant on Russian gas, found itself in a precarious position as supply disruptions loomed large. Rühl recounted the dramatic images of the Nord Stream pipeline explosion and the subsequent scramble to secure alternative energy sources. In response, Europe witnessed an unprecedented level of adaptability, from rapidly expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports to reviving dormant coal plants.

This crisis, Rühl argued, revealed the limitations of renewables in addressing acute energy shortages. While renewables play a critical role in decarbonization, their intermittency and the challenges of cross-border electricity transmission make them less suitable for immediate crisis response. Fossil fuels, despite their environmental drawbacks, proved indispensable due to their transportability, storability, and reliability.

The heart of Prof. Rühl’s address centered on the global energy transition and its apparent stagnation. Despite decades of investment and policy focus, the share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix has remained stubbornly high. In 2022, fossil fuels still accounted for nearly 80% of primary energy consumption, with renewables contributing only about 8%.

Prof. Rühl called for a shift from the “substitution narrative”—the idea that renewables can simply replace fossil fuels—to one of “complementarity.” This approach recognizes that diverse energy sources, including fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewables, must work in tandem to ensure energy security while advancing decarbonization goals.

He also emphasized the need to focus on practical strategies for reducing greenhouse gas concentrations, such as carbon capture, afforestation, and innovative market mechanisms like carbon credits. Rühl pointed to the potential of global carbon markets, though he cautioned against the pitfalls of poorly regulated systems.

Turning to the petrochemical industry, Rühl underscored its dual role as both a contributor to and a potential mitigator of global emissions. The industry’s innovations, particularly in plastics recycling and alternative feedstocks, could significantly reduce its environmental impact. However, he cautioned that achieving these outcomes would require sustained investment, technological breakthroughs, and supportive policy frameworks.

Rühl highlighted the unique opportunity for petrochemical producers to lead the way in decarbonization by embracing circular economy principles and leveraging their expertise in materials science. He also warned of the risks posed by geopolitical shifts and market disruptions, urging the industry to adopt strategies that enhance resilience and adaptability.

Prof Rühl concluded his address with a powerful call to action. The global energy transition, he argued, is not a linear or straightforward process. It requires a nuanced understanding of energy systems, a willingness to adapt to evolving circumstances, and a commitment to innovation.

“Energy security and energy transition are not mutually exclusive,” Rühl asserted. “They are two sides of the same coin, and our success in addressing both will define the future of the petrochemical industry—and indeed, the world.”