The Sultanate’s real GDP will increase to 2.4 per cent in 2018 and 2.9 per cent in 2019 compared to 0.9 per cent in 2017, according to World Bank report published on its website on Monday under the title ‘Global Economic Prospects.’’
The bank said that growth in the region is projected to fall to 2.1 per cent in 2017 as the adverse impact of Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) oil production cuts outweighs modestly improving conditions for importers.
Growth is expected to pick up to 2.9 per cent in 2018, assuming a moderation of geopolitical tensions and an increase in oil prices.
The World Bank forecasts that global economic growth will strengthen to 2.7 per cent in 2017, as a pickup in manufacturing and trade, rising market confidence, and stabilising commodity prices allow growth to resume in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies.
It said that the growth in Asia and Pacific is projected to ease to 6.2 per cent in 2017 and to 6.1 per cent in 2018, as the gradual slowdown in China is offset by a pickup elsewhere led by a rebound among commodity exporters and accelerating growth in Thailand.
The bank said that the global growth forecasts are affected by major risks.
New trade restrictions could derail the welcome rebound in global trade.
Persistent policy uncertainty could dampen confidence and investment.
The report added that over the longer term, persistently weak productivity and investment growth could erode long-term growth prospects in emerging market and developing economies that are key to poverty reduction.
“For too long, we’ve seen low growth hold back progress in the fight against poverty, so it is encouraging to see signs that the global economy is gaining firmer footing,” World Bank President Jim Yong Kim said.
“With a fragile but real recovery now under way, countries should seize this moment to undertake institutional and market reforms that can attract private investment to help sustain growth in the long term,” he added.
He pointed out that countries must also continue to invest in people and build resilience against overlapping challenges, including climate change, conflict, forced displacement, famine, and disease.
The update of the multilateral development lender’s Global Economic Prospects report marked the first time in several years that its June forecasts were not reduced from those published in January due to rising growth risks.
The World Bank’s 2017 global growth forecast of 2.7 per cent compares to its 2.4 percent estimate for 2016, a figure that was increased by a tenth of a percentage point since January.
The World Bank said advanced economies were showing signs of improvement, especially Japan and Europe, while the seven largest emerging markets — China, Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Turkey and Russia - were again helping to drive global growth.
The bank boosted its 2017 growth forecast for Japan by 0.6 percentage point since January to 1.5 per cent, while the euro zone’s forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage point to 1.7 per cent. In both cases, a pickup in exports and unconventional monetary easing are helping to support growth.
— Agencies
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