Federal Reserve policymakers appeared increasingly wary about recent weak inflation and some called for halting interest rate hikes until it was clear the trend was transitory, according to the minutes of the US central bank’s last policy meeting.
The readout of the July 25-26 meeting, released on Wednesday, also indicated the Fed was poised to begin reducing its $4.2 trillion portfolio of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
Last month’s meeting, which concluded with a unanimous decision to leave rates unchanged, was marked by a lengthy discussion about the recent soft inflation readings, the minutes showed.
The central bank’s preferred inflation measure dropped to 1.5 per cent in June from 1.8 per cent in February and has remained below its 2 per cent target for more than five years.
“Many participants... saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2 per cent for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside,” the Fed said in the minutes.
The inflation retreat has spurred concerns the Fed may have to cool its monetary tightening pace even though the economy is growing moderately and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 per cent in July, matching a 16-year low touched in May.
The Fed has raised its benchmark overnight lending rate twice this year and forecasts one more rise before the end of 2017.
Some policymakers argued last month against future rate rises until there was more concrete evidence that inflation was moving back towards the Fed’s objective, according to the minutes.
Others, however, cautioned that such a delay could cause an eventual overshooting in inflation given a tightening labour market “that would likely be costly to reverse.”
BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION: In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said, “I’m not one who would like to see inflation be at 2 per cent before we continue on the path” of rate hikes because policy affects the economy with a lag.
“On the other hand, we do have to take into account that we have had weak readings on inflation,” Mester added.
Senior Fed officials have largely dismissed the inflation softness as temporary. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said last month that special factors, including price drops for mobile phone plans and prescription drugs, were partly responsible.
Voting members of the Fed’ rate-setting committee agreed to monitor inflation closely in light of the concerns, with a few policymakers cautioning that the central bank’s framework for analysing inflation was “not particularly useful,” according to the minutes.
“What it boils down to is what inflation will do between here and December,” said Eric Winograd, an economist at Alliance Bernstein, who still expects the Fed to raise rates again at its December 12-13 meeting.
Fed policymakers at last month’s meeting also cast a keener light on financial stability and agreed it was important to look for signs of declining market volatility or concentration of investors in particular assets.
Elsewhere in the minutes, Fed officials reinforced expectations of an announcement in September to begin reducing the central bank’s holdings of bonds that were bought in the wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession.
— Reuters
Lindsay Dunsmuir and Jason Lange
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